Modi’s Calculated Risk-Betting on Russia

The recent talks between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin in New Delhi have raised more questions than answers about the trajectory of India-Russia relations. On the surface, these discussions seem like a continuation of a long-standing friendship between the two nations, but scratch beneath the surface and it becomes clear that this is a high-stakes game of geopolitics.

India’s dependence on Russian oil has been a contentious issue in recent times, with many questioning New Delhi’s decision to resist Western pressure to boycott Moscow over its actions in Ukraine. The reality is that India’s large population and economy require secure, affordable, and reliable energy supplies. However, this reliance on Russia comes with significant geopolitical costs.

The BRICS summit, which took place concurrently with Modi-Putin talks, served as a platform for leaders from emerging economies to assert their influence on the global stage. The presence of Chinese President Xi Jinping and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian added weight to the proceedings, underscoring the importance of these relationships in shaping the future of international trade and diplomacy.

The scope of cooperation between India and Russia is extensive, encompassing civil nuclear energy, fertilisers, defence, critical minerals, manufacturing, railways, and steel. Some view this as a natural extension of their historical ties, while others see it as a strategic maneuver by Modi to counterbalance the growing influence of China in the region.

The war in Ukraine has created a rift between Russia and the West, with many countries imposing severe sanctions on Moscow. India’s refusal to join this chorus is not merely a matter of economic necessity; it also reflects its own aspirations for global status. By standing apart from the Western bloc, New Delhi seeks to carve out a distinct identity for itself in an increasingly multipolar world.

Data suggests that Russia’s share of Indian crude imports rose significantly in 2026, with Russian oil accounting for over half of India’s imports in July of that year. Although this trend may have moderated in August due to increased Chinese purchases, the fact remains that India is heavily reliant on Russian energy supplies. This has significant implications for New Delhi’s relationships with other major powers, particularly the United States.

The visit by Putin to India in December 2025 marked a significant milestone in bilateral ties, with both countries agreeing to expand their trade and defence relationship. However, this agreement also raises questions about India’s commitment to its own national security priorities. By deepening its military partnership with Russia, New Delhi may be compromising its long-term ability to resist Chinese aggression.

As the world grapples with the consequences of rising tensions between major powers, one thing is clear: India’s relationship with Russia will continue to be a defining aspect of its foreign policy agenda. The Modi government must navigate this complex landscape with caution, balancing its need for secure energy supplies with the imperative of maintaining good relations with other key players.

The coming months will be crucial in determining the trajectory of India-Russia ties. Will New Delhi continue to defy Western pressure and deepen its cooperation with Moscow, or will it seek to diversify its energy sources and reduce its dependence on Russian oil? Only time will tell, but one thing is certain: the implications of this high-stakes game will be far-reaching and profound.