Uneven Progress: A Symbolic Meeting for Trump and Xi

The meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Washington this week is being hailed as a significant development in the ongoing trade negotiations between the two countries. However, beneath the surface of diplomatic niceties lies a more nuanced reality: the progress on trade commitments has been uneven at best.

The May agreement between Trump and Xi marked a notable shift in tone, with both sides pledging to work towards a more constructive relationship. In practical terms, this means finding areas of cooperation despite fundamental differences. Analysts point out that the two countries have made some progress – such as launching a Board of Trade and reducing reciprocal tariffs on $30 billion worth of goods.

One area where cooperation is being explored is in trade talks around agricultural exports. China agreed to buy at least $17 billion annually in American farm products, a significant increase on previous pledges. However, there’s uncertainty over whether this level will actually be reached. A US Department of Agriculture forecast suggests that China may only import $21.5 billion worth of American farm goods in the next 12 months.

The two countries have also agreed to work towards reducing barriers to dairy, seafood, and potted bonsai exports from China, as well as beef and poultry from the US. Chinese registrations for American beef plants have been renewed, but negotiators are still working on technical issues to clear shipments at Chinese ports.

However, one of the most significant sticking points remains the sale of Boeing aircraft to China. Despite a promise made in May to buy 200 planes, no orders have yet materialized. This is not surprising, given the complex web of technical and regulatory hurdles that need to be cleared before such deals can go through.

In recent years, AI has emerged as a key area of competition – rather than cooperation – between the US and China. Both countries share concerns over the risks associated with AI, but they also see each other as competitors in this field. This rivalry makes it difficult for them to collaborate on issues such as data sharing, regulation, and ethics.

Establishing a channel for crisis communications could be a more modest step forward – something that experts say is crucial given the low trust levels between the two countries. As former trade negotiator Sara Schuman pointed out, establishing this channel could help people know who their counterparts are and can call them when there’s a crisis.

The creation of a Board of Investment has been a long-promised agreement that remains elusive due to concerns over security and strategic implications in an era of increased competition between the US and China. Chinese investment is drawing scrutiny from the US Congress, while China itself remains cautious about exporting its technology to the US.

This week’s meeting will undoubtedly be a symbolic moment – with both leaders keen to demonstrate progress on trade agreements and show their respective domestic audiences that they’re making headway in negotiations. However, as we’ve seen time and again in these high-stakes talks, symbolism often trumps substance. It remains to be seen whether this meeting will mark a genuine shift towards greater cooperation or simply be another chapter in the ongoing dance of diplomatic posturing.

The US-China relationship is complex, messy, and fraught with uncertainty. While some progress may be made on specific trade agreements, the underlying dynamics driving these talks remain unchanged – and it’s this that will ultimately determine the course of the relationship between these two global powers.